How the Russian War in Ukraine Changes the World Order

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is the culmination of an eight-year attempt to meddle in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation with the intent of subduing a free population and its state administration. Now the world is potentially on the cusp of a broader World War. Eight years prior, the Russian authorities (the Kremlin) denied their involvement with any separatist uprisings in major Ukrainian cities in the East and South, military formations in Crimea, and parts of the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions named Donbas. However, since 1991, the Russian Federation has left an independently documented track record of trifling and invading the internal affairs of its neighbors like Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, the countries it once occupied for generations. On February 24, Putin declared Russia needed to protect its interests and security. Through it, the Kremlin used the modernized “divide and conquer” strategy: capitalizing on the sowed seeds of cultural, linguistic, and historic discord through propaganda as well as separatist projects to destabilize the countries it deemed its spheres of influence. The Kremlin still approaches world affairs from the perspective of realpolitik, pragmatic politics based on practical circumstances, national interests, and power. It is heavily rooted in the events of the Second World War and its aftermath. Now, the Kremlin’s war is threatening to potentially reshape the world order, as Putin's propaganda machine continues to repeat the notion that this war on Ukraine is just a precursor for a war with NATO itself.

How does the collective democratic world (the West) respond to the threats to the world order?

Nuclear threats have been the Kremlin’s instrument for years, and having been intensified now; they serve as a strong deterrent against continued Western aid. Russia is challenging the West and the international security system by invading the sovereign country of Ukraine, thus perpetually threatening the whole post-1945 system.  

Toward that end, Putin hoped the invasion of Ukraine would be swift and the West’s response would be lackluster. Yet, Ukraine stood strong and fought back. Its use of diplomacy, the support of Central and Eastern European allies, and diasporas have rallied immense strength and put pressure on inert Western governments. The more Ukraine has resisted, the more the world has seen what Putin’s Russia represents thus mustering a response. The Kremlin’s disregard for human rights and International Law has prompted the West to act quickly and unapologetically. The democratic world rallied enormous humanitarian help, mobilized all possible diplomatic efforts, and, most importantly, ramped up relevant and immense military help despite the Kremlin’s constant nuclear threats. For example, the US Congress has now passed the Lend-Lease Act so the US Government is authorized to provide more offensive military aid. This includes M777 howitzers, Soviet-era helicopters, drones-kamikazes Switchblade, and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. Additionally, the Ukrainian army hopes to receive long-term relevant training and subsequent delivery of game-changing weapons like Patriot anti-aircraft systems and F-16 fighter jets although those might require even more political will of the Biden administration to challenge the Kremlin. Western military aid is the key to defeating Russia and revamping the existing world order. 

What does Ukraine’s revamp of the world order look like?

Russia is waging a war that has already sent shockwaves throughout its society: ultranationalism is on the rise, prices are up, and the totalitarian noose has tightened, among other things. Ukraine must win this war; how the Russian society will react to it remains a question (especially considering the recent partial mobilization decree), but with the Russian open colonial invasion of Ukraine, new world order is being ushered in. 

The West has nurtured Putin's ruthless dictatorship by conducting trade, investments, and appeasement. This post-USSR approach of “geopolitics through trade” to promote democracy in authoritarian countries has not been successful. With the divide of the world into democratic and autocratic states, the West, as spoken by then UK Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss is starting to unite and stand up to perpetrators of International Law. After being stagnant for more than 20 years, NATO is en route to reinventing itself thanks to Ukraine and its display of freedom fighting. The new Strategic Concept names Russia “a threat” and expands its eastern frontier to 300.000 soldiers to better respond to Russia’s threats.

The EU, after the Brexit blow, may have just found a chance to show its strength through unity. 

The UN still serves as a helpful forum for opinions, but its influence is limited. More must be done to display the democratic world’s resolve. The rules-based order has been undermined, and international actors must act resolutely.

Russia is already being cut off from Western finance, now it must be expulsed. The liberal world must unite and boost its image of cooperation; this means democracies must be armed and ready. It is also imperative that democracies not let autocracies win; otherwise, it tarnishes the belief in the power of values like freedom, human rights, and liberal solidarity. That should translate into policy, too. As Anne Applebaum puts it: “Democracy must be at the center of foreign policy”, countries must incentivize democracy as a prerequisite for long-term relationships. We can see how the EU scrambles to improve its relations with countries in the Indo-Pacific. It also might make sense to conduct value-based foreign relations and trade, their deepening contingent upon the improvements of the rule of law and democracy on either side.

The democratic world must be ready for any escalation and challenge; avoiding and retreating invites more escalation, contrary to common logic as seen through Nazi Germany and Putin’s Russia. Likewise, because information nowadays is essential, democracies must provide news coverage in target languages for those living under dictatorships as an alternative opinion.  

Another important policy choice is increased isolation through a ban on tourist visas. The Russian society post-USSR is afraid not to be recognized. Ukraine’s president has called on the EU to prohibit tourism for Russians for a year. This might show continued solidarity with Ukraine, as the Russian military has not ebbed in their show of war crimes against the Ukrainian people. Russian media, politicians, and opposition immediately sought to slam the possibility of the discussion. While there are merits and drawbacks to such a decision, it is important to further put pressure on the Russian government’s attempts to downplay the fallout of sanctions and the brutality of its war.

As for global solutions, Ukraine has suggested creating an alliance of various states called U-24 (“United for Peace”), a potentially viable, efficient, and fast alternative to other international organizations. The members should readily provide any kind of assistance to the state in need (within days). Such an organization could rival the existing organizations, like the UN, in terms of rapid responses to various military conflicts, climate, and humanitarian crises. President Zelenskyy in his speech at the UN spoke in detail about the need to restore the rules-based order and listed 5 points of the Ukrainian formula for peace, justice, and law:

• punishment for aggression; 
• protection of life; 
• restoration of security and territorial integrity; 
• security guarantees; 
• and determination to defend oneself.

In repelling the Russian invasion and protecting the Ukrainian people and sovereignty, Ukraine must win against all odds and imperfections of the global world order. International actors must realize that helping Ukraine and other victims is not just brave; it is necessary even if the perpetrator offers excellent financial incentives. Money might be expensive, but freedom is priceless.

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