Over the past two decades, China has transformed from a low-cost “factory to the world” to one of the most open markets in the global economy. Along with China’s technological and supply chain advancements, it has also transformed international diplomacy, influencing development in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These developments have contributed to China’s emergence as a global power. However, to the United States’ disappointment, China’s rise has not been accompanied by liberalization at home or moderation abroad. Expressions of great-power ambitions and a more forceful diplomatic posture from China’s leadership, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have marked a shift away from a cautious and conciliatory approach toward the U.S. to a more aggressive and less restrained one. This shift in posture has made it difficult to identify China’s medium- and long-term strategic goals, creating a new era of tension in U.S.–China relations. In the wake of a rising China, what exactly are the United States’ goals and what strategies should they pursue to achieve them? 

2020 Shapes U.S.–China Relations

Prior to the trade war, the U.S.–China relationship was described by prior Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in 2017 as one “built on nonconfrontation, no conflict, mutual respect, and always searching for win-win solutions.” In response to alleged Chinese theft of intellectual property and U.S. technologies, the Trump Administration announced aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, marking the start of a trade war between the U.S. and China. Engaging in a fierce trade war, competing over key technologies and intellectual property rights, increasing conflict over human rights abuses in Hong Kong and XinJiang with the genocide of Uyghurs, and unprecedented aggression by China in the South China Sea have all contributed to heightened tension between the U.S. and China. These issues came to a head at the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic, making 2020 an important turning point in one of the most important bilateral relationships of today. Despite small glimpses of cooperation at the onset of the virus, criticisms on both sides ushered in a tit-for-tat pattern of blame between the two countries, and a war of words began.

Amidst the pandemic, tensions over Taiwan have increased. Although the official position of the United States on Taiwan has not strayed from “strategic ambiguity,” President Joe Biden has stated that he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan, which has deepened animosity between the parties. China has ramped up the pressure with the number of reported incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone reaching its peak in October, 2021. Actions taken by the U.S. and Chinese governments since 2020 are unconventional and mark a shift away from a period of relatively peaceful relations to a more aggressive and offensive one. This uncharted territory poses great challenges to officials in Washington as they try to analyze how best to handle an unpredictable and volatile China. 

How to Think About America’s China Strategy

In his speech outlining the Biden Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China, Secretary of State Andrew J. Blinken made clear that in the face of a more aggressive and repressive China, direct diplomacy is vital and the U.S. must “shape the strategic environment around Beijing to advance our vision for an open, inclusive international system.” Blinken summed up the Biden Administration’s strategy in three words: “invest, align, compete.” Investing in competitiveness, innovation, and democracy, aligning efforts with our allies and partners, and competing with China to ultimately defend our interests for the international order. President Biden stated, “We’ll seek to preserve peace through a new approach that we call “integrated deterrence” – bringing in allies and partners; working across the conventional, the nuclear, space, and informational domains; drawing on our reinforcing strengths in economics, in technology, and in diplomacy.” The Biden Administration’s choice to prioritize alignment with allies to counter China’s growing power represents a shift away from the Trump Administration’s approach that openly criticized the Chinese government and aimed to weaken it. 

From my vantage, I believe that it is productive to accept that a power shift is occurring and instead of trying to reverse it, focus on rallying a coalition of like-minded states to deter or counteract Chinese revisionism. But this alone is not enough. The U.S. must work to change the alignment decisions of regional states by strengthening alliance commitments and building a stronger military coalition to counteract China’s power. In addition to this, the U.S. should overtly criticize the Chinese Communist Party’s behavior and work to expose it in an effort to ramp up pressure on the Chinese government and galvanize support from other nations against the repressive regime. Lastly, the United States needs to approach relations with Beijing with more realism. We must situate the United States to compete with China militarily, technologically, and economically, and increase our abilities to protect weaker countries from China’s encroachment on their sovereignty. Our approach needs to highlight and blend key aspects of both the Trump Administration’s and Biden Administration’s strategies toward China. 

At the end of the day, the U.S. approach to China must focus on strengthening and maintaining our network of allies to deter and/or counterbalance China’s growing power while also applying pressure on the regime by openly criticizing and exposing its practices, securing our supply chains, investing in education and innovation, and advancing our military capacities to ultimately maintain our competitive edge. 

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